Exit polls for the Bihar Assembly Election 2025 have triggered intense political discussion across the state and the country. Most survey agencies are suggesting a clear advantage for the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by the BJP and JD(U), while one major exit poll has projected a much closer fight and even hinted that the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) could emerge as the single largest party.
Although exit polls offer an early indication of voter mood, they are not official results. The final outcome will only be known once the Election Commission completes the counting of votes.
What Do The Bihar Exit Polls Predict?
In total, eleven exit polls have shared seat projections for the 2025 Bihar Assembly elections. The broad conclusion from most of them is that the NDA is likely to return to power with a comfortable majority, while the opposition Mahagathbandhan may fall short of the numbers needed to form the government.
Survey agencies such as Matrize, JVC, Chanakya Strategies, TIF Research, P Marq, Peoples Insight, Dainik Bhaskar, DV Research, CNX, Vote Vibe and Peoples Pulse have all projected a clear victory for the NDA. Their seat ranges differ slightly, but the direction is similar: the BJP–JD(U) led alliance is seen crossing the majority mark of 122 seats.
These polls also suggest that Jan Suraaj, the party launched by political strategist Prashant Kishor, is unlikely to make a major impact in terms of seat tally in its debut Assembly election. Most predictions give it either negligible seats or at best a token presence in the new House.
Bihar Election Exit Polls 2025: Quick Summary
Key Point |
Details |
|---|---|
Election Type |
Bihar Assembly Election 2025 |
Total Seats |
243 |
Majority Mark |
122 |
Main Alliances |
NDA (BJP, JD(U) and allies) vs Mahagathbandhan (RJD, Congress and partners) |
Number of Exit Polls Tracked |
11 |
Overall Trend |
Majority of exit polls give NDA a clear edge |
Notable Variation |
Axis My India predicts a close contest and RJD as possible single largest party |
Voter Turnout |
Phase 2 turnout around 67.14 percent (provisional), Phase 1 above 65 percent |
Counting Date |
14 November 2025 |
Official Election Information |
Election Commission of India: https://eci.gov.in |
Axis My India: A Different Picture
Against this backdrop of a pro–NDA narrative, the Axis My India exit poll stands out. This particular survey has predicted a much closer contest between the NDA and the Mahagathbandhan.
According to its projections:
- The RJD, led by Tejashwi Yadav, could emerge as the single largest party in the Assembly.
- The RJD is projected to win roughly between 67 and 76 seats.
If such a scenario materialises, it would strengthen the position of the Mahagathbandhan in post–poll politics, even if the alliance as a whole does not cross the majority mark. However, until votes are counted, this remains only one of several exit poll narratives.
Poll Of Exit Polls: Overall Seat Projection
Media organisations often compile a combined or average estimate based on multiple exit polls, commonly referred to as a Poll of Exit Polls. In this case, such an aggregate suggests:
- The BJP–JD(U) led NDA could secure around 146 seats, which is comfortably above the majority mark of 122.
- The RJD–Congress led Mahagathbandhan may be limited to approximately 92 seats. This is lower than its 2020 performance, when it reached around 110 seats.
- Jan Suraaj is projected to win around 1 seat, indicating a modest start to its electoral journey.
These combined numbers reinforce the broad message that the NDA is currently favoured to retain power, while the opposition alliance may face a setback compared with the previous election.
Voter Turnout And Phases Of Polling
Bihar voted in two phases in the 2025 Assembly election.
- Phase 1 (6 November):
The first phase saw a relatively high voter turnout of over 65 percent. - Phase 2 (held yesterday):
The second and final phase recorded an even higher provisional turnout of about 67.14 percent up to 5 pm.
In this second phase, around 3.7 crore voters exercised their franchise and decided the fate of about 1,302 candidates. Many of these candidates include sitting ministers and senior leaders from the government of Chief Minister Nitish Kumar.
The strong turnout figures in both phases indicate robust public participation and interest in the election, cutting across urban and rural regions.
Political Context And Party Positions
Performance Of JD(U) In Last Election
In the previous Assembly election, Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and his party JD(U) went through a challenging phase. The JD(U) tally dropped to 43 seats, a decline of more than 25 seats compared with its earlier performance. Analysts widely attributed this fall to the rebellion by Chirag Paswan and his party, which at the time was known as the Lok Janshakti Party, contesting separately and hurting JD(U) in several constituencies.
Role Of Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) In 2025
In the 2025 election, the situation has changed. The party led by Chirag Paswan is now named Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) and is contesting as a junior constituent of the NDA. This time, instead of cutting into NDA votes as a rival, it is working as part of the alliance structure, which may help consolidate votes in certain regions.
BJP And JD(U) Seat Sharing
An interesting feature of this election is that the BJP and JD(U) are contesting on an equal number of seats. Both parties are fielding candidates in 101 constituencies each. The remaining seats in the 243 member Assembly are being contested by smaller NDA allies and other partners.
In the 2020 election, the BJP emerged stronger than JD(U) in terms of seat tally, which shifted the power balance inside the alliance. The 2025 election will again influence how the internal dynamics of the NDA evolve in Bihar.
Why Exit Polls Should Be Read With Caution
Almost every report on exit polls carries a reminder that they are not always accurate. Past elections in India and abroad have shown that exit poll predictions can sometimes be off the mark, either underestimating or overestimating support for certain parties.
Some key reasons for possible inaccuracy include:
- Sampling limitations in diverse and complex constituencies
- Voters not revealing their true preference at the time of survey
- Errors in modelling seat conversion from vote share
- Last minute shifts in voter mood not captured fully by survey teams
Because of these factors, exit polls should be treated as indicators of possible trends, not as final verdicts. The Election Commission’s official counting of votes remains the only authoritative source for results.
What Happens Next?
The next important date in the Bihar 2025 election calendar is the counting day. The counting of votes is scheduled for 14 November 2025. On that day, trends and results will start coming in from counting centres across the state.
By the end of the process:
- The actual seat tally of the NDA, Mahagathbandhan, Jan Suraaj and other parties will be known.
- It will become clear whether the exit polls were broadly accurate, partially correct or significantly off.
- The way forward for government formation and alliance negotiations will be decided by the final numbers.
Until then, political parties, candidates and voters will have to wait, analyse and speculate based on available exit poll data.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
1. How many exit polls are predicting a win for the NDA in Bihar?
A total of eleven exit polls, including surveys by Matrize, JVC, Chanakya Strategies, TIF Research, P Marq, Peoples Insight, Dainik Bhaskar, DV Research, CNX, Vote Vibe and Peoples Pulse, are suggesting that the NDA is likely to secure a majority over the Mahagathbandhan.
2. What is special about the Axis My India exit poll?
The Axis My India exit poll differs from many others because it predicts a close contest between the NDA and the Mahagathbandhan. It also suggests that Tejashwi Yadav’s RJD could become the single largest party with around 67 to 76 seats.
3. How many seats does the Poll of Exit Polls give to each alliance?
The aggregated Poll of Exit Polls suggests that the BJP–JD(U) led NDA may win around 146 seats, which is comfortably above the majority mark of 122. The Mahagathbandhan is projected at around 92 seats, while Jan Suraaj is estimated at about 1 seat.
4. When will the final results of the Bihar Assembly Election 2025 be declared?
The counting of votes will take place on 14 November 2025. Official results will be announced by the Election Commission after counting is completed. Exit polls are only indicative and have no official status.
5. Where can I check official and verified election results for Bihar?
For confirmed and legally valid election results, you should visit the official website of the Election Commission of India:
https://eci.gov.in
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