The countdown for the Bihar Assembly Election 2025 results has begun. The final outcome will be known on 14 November, but before that, political parties, workers and ordinary citizens are busy doing their own calculations. From busy bazaars to village tea stalls, people are passionately discussing which candidate will win and which alliance will form the next government.
While local conversations and individual predictions may differ, most professional exit polls are pointing in one direction. Almost all exit poll agencies have projected that the National Democratic Alliance, or NDA, is in a strong position to form the government in Bihar once again. At the same time, some surveys suggest a very interesting twist. Axis My India, in particular, has indicated that the Rashtriya Janata Dal, or RJD, may emerge as the single largest party in the Assembly, even if the NDA as a whole has the edge.
Two major exit poll agencies, Axis My India and Today’s Chanakya, have now released their detailed projections for Bihar. Both broadly indicate an NDA victory. However, every election watcher knows that exit polls sometimes fail to capture the full picture. The real test of these predictions will come on the day of counting.
Exit Poll Mood On The Ground In Bihar
As the election campaign ends and voting phases are completed, the atmosphere across Bihar is charged with speculation. Party workers are convinced their side has won. Supporters proudly claim victory for local candidates. In many places, people are placing small bets among friends about seat numbers and possible chief ministers.
Against this backdrop, exit polls serve as a structured attempt to measure voter sentiment. Voters are interviewed after casting their ballots, and their responses are converted into seat projections and vote share estimates. While they are not official results, they often give a broad indication of which way the wind may be blowing.
In this election, the general conclusion from most agencies is that the NDA is poised to form the government. Yet, there are interesting details when we examine individual exit polls.
Bihar Exit Poll 2025: Quick Summary
Key Point |
Details |
|---|---|
Election |
Bihar Assembly Election 2025 |
Total Seats In Assembly |
243 |
Majority Mark |
122 |
Main Alliances |
NDA versus Grand Alliance (Mahagathbandhan) |
Overall Exit Poll Trend |
Most exit polls predict NDA government |
Axis My India Highlight |
NDA ahead as alliance, RJD may become largest single party |
Today’s Chanakya Highlight |
NDA projected clear majority, Grand Alliance behind |
Key Parties Mentioned |
RJD, JD(U), BJP, Congress, Vikassheel Insaan Party, Left parties, Jan Suraj Party |
Result Date |
14 November |
Official Election Website |
Axis My India Exit Poll: NDA Ahead, RJD Largest Party
Axis My India released its Bihar exit poll on Wednesday evening. According to its projections:
- The NDA is expected to win between 121 and 141 seats.
- The Grand Alliance, or Mahagathbandhan, is expected to get between 98 and 118 seats.
- The Jan Suraj Party, led by Prashant Kishore, is projected to win between 0 and 2 seats.
What makes this exit poll particularly noteworthy is the party wise breakup. According to Axis My India:
- The RJD is expected to emerge as the single largest party in Bihar, with around 67 to 76 seats.
- JD(U) is projected to become the second largest party, with about 56 to 62 seats.
- The BJP is expected to finish third, with around 50 to 56 seats.
- The Congress may secure roughly 17 to 21 seats.
- The Vikassheel Insaan Party, or VIP, is projected to win 3 to 5 seats.
- Left parties together are expected to win around 10 to 14 seats.
On the question of vote share, Axis My India suggests a very close fight between the two main alliances. The NDA is placed slightly ahead with a higher percentage of votes, while the Grand Alliance is only a few points behind. The Jan Suraj Party is projected to secure a smaller vote share, enough to be noticed but not enough to convert into a large number of seats.
This combination where one alliance may win the government while another party becomes the largest single party in the House makes the political picture complex and interesting.
What Today’s Chanakya Exit Poll Predicts
The exit poll by Today’s Chanakya also points toward an NDA victory, but with a stronger margin. According to this agency:
- The NDA may secure around 160 seats, with a possible variation range on either side.
- The Grand Alliance is projected to win approximately 77 seats, again with a possible margin of error.
The vote share figures indicated by Today’s Chanakya also place the NDA clearly ahead of the Grand Alliance. While the exact percentages are not detailed in the article, the conclusion remains that the NDA enjoys a comfortable lead in both seats and votes in this particular survey.
The difference between Axis My India and Today’s Chanakya is mainly in the scale of the majority. Axis suggests a tighter contest with the possibility of RJD becoming the largest party, while Today’s Chanakya points to a more one sided victory for the NDA. Together, they still keep the NDA in the lead in most scenarios.
How Many Seats For Which Party According To Axis My India
Breaking down the Axis My India exit poll further gives a clearer sense of each party’s position:
- Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD)
Projected as the single largest party with about 67 to 76 seats. This suggests that RJD remains the main pillar of the Grand Alliance and continues to have strong support across key regions of Bihar. - Janata Dal (United) JD(U)
Projected to become the second largest party with about 56 to 62 seats. This underlines the continuing relevance of Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s party within the NDA camp. - Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)
Expected to secure around 50 to 56 seats. Although the BJP may be slightly behind JD(U) in this particular exit poll, together they provide the backbone of the NDA. - Indian National Congress
Projected to win about 17 to 21 seats. This indicates a moderate presence within the Grand Alliance, supporting RJD but not dominating the coalition. - Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP)
Expected to win around 3 to 5 seats. This smaller regional party could still play a role in tightly contested seats and in alliance arithmetic. - Left Parties
Projected seat range of 10 to 14. This performance suggests that Left parties continue to maintain influence in their traditional pockets and can contribute to the strength of the Grand Alliance. - Jan Suraj Party
Expected to win between 0 and 2 seats. While its vote share may be visible, the party faces a challenge in converting that support into Assembly seats in its debut election.
Exit Polls And The Final Result
While seat projections may look impressive, every analyst and citizen should remember one important point. Exit polls are not the final answer. They are based on samples and statistical methods, and there is always room for error. In past elections, there have been cases where exit polls underestimated one side or completely missed a silent wave for another.
The real result will be known only when the Election Commission of India completes the counting process. Ballots and electronic voting machine data will be tallied on 14 November, and only then will Bihar know which alliance will form the government and who will sit in the opposition benches.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
1. What is the main message of the Bihar 2025 exit polls?
Most exit polls suggest that the NDA is in a strong position to form the next government in Bihar. At the same time, some surveys, especially Axis My India, indicate that the RJD may become the single largest party in the Assembly even if the NDA alliance as a whole has more seats.
2. How many seats has Axis My India projected for RJD, JD(U) and BJP?
Axis My India projects around 67 to 76 seats for RJD, about 56 to 62 seats for JD(U) and roughly 50 to 56 seats for the BJP. This makes RJD the largest single party, with JD(U) and BJP together giving strength to the NDA.
3. What does the Today’s Chanakya exit poll say about the NDA?
Today’s Chanakya suggests that the NDA could win around 160 seats, with the Grand Alliance getting around 77 seats. In this view, the NDA appears to have a clear majority and a comfortable lead over the opposition.
4. How is the Jan Suraj Party expected to perform?
The Jan Suraj Party, led by Prashant Kishore, is projected to win between 0 and 2 seats according to Axis My India. This indicates that while the party may gather some votes, its ability to win seats in this election may be limited.
5. Where can I find official and final Bihar election results?
Official results are published by the Election Commission of India. You can visit the website of the Election Commission at
https://eci.gov.in
for constituency wise seat counts, vote share details and all official notifications related to the Bihar Assembly Election 2025.
For More Information Click HERE
